Forlorn China predictions
I go and make the prediction that China will be naughty this year, and before the year is even one day old we get this courtesy of Tyler Cowen:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sweeping-chinese-military-purge-exposes-weakness-could-widen-2023-12-30/
With the first para quoting:
‘A sweeping purge of Chinese generals has weakened the People's Liberation Army, exposing deep-rooted corruption that could take more time to fix and slow Chinese leader Xi Jinping's military modernization drive amid geopolitical tensions, analysts say.’
Which seems to imply I’m going to be made to look deeply foolish.
But there is a curiosity here. On who’s watch has this rampant corruption built up? Who has overseen all this growth, and promotion of these fellows? There is a hint in the same article:
‘Since Xi took power in 2012, he has embarked on a wide-ranging anti-corruption crackdown among Communist Party and government officials, with the PLA being one of its main targets.’
So after eleven years of anti-corruption the PLA are still corrupt…there does seem to be a common thread of graft in the CCP and Russian militaries…once again can’t wonder why.
But this is where the experts then lay in:
‘In the longer run, analysts expect the chronic problem of corruption to persist in the Chinese military because some root causes - including low pay for officers and opacity in military expenditure - have not been addressed.
Chen Daoyin, formerly an associate professor at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said that the ongoing crackdown might dissuade Xi from risking serious clashes with other militaries in the next 5-10 years.
"Before realising how rampant corruption was, he drank his Kool-Aid and thought the military can really 'fight and win battles' as expected by him," said Chen, who is now a political commentator based in Chile.
"But how can the generals' hearts be in fighting, if they are just busy lining their own pockets? Xi now knows that their proclamations of loyalty to the party and to the military ring hollow. I imagine this would zap his confidence somewhat."‘
Might in the middle of that word salad is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
Or now there is a bunch of very scared yes men in charge who will say whatever they think Xi needs to hear so that their heads stay attached to their shoulders. To me, and taking a leaf from ‘Red Storm Rising’ where, albeit in a fictional world, the Soviets cracked down on bad behaviour just before the invasion, is this more likely to result in the previously predicted naughtiness or not?
I think yes, but then I would say that wouldn't I.
Hey ho.