Why I don't trust experts...
…even though many people may operate under the terrible assumption I am one.
I think there is a very simple heuristic on listening, watching, understanding an expert and discounting what their position is very quickly. And it is this:
Do they have 100% certainty on what they are espousing?
If you have an expert and they don’t have uncertainty in their position, run away totally. Think back to Covid. Lock downs would flatten the curve in two weeks. No argument brooked. Dead set certainty. Only thing it helped flatten was the economy and peoples livelihoods.
Masks. They will stop transmission. They will protect you. Experts were so so certain. Yeah, no. Total utter bolloxs. Never worked in the 1918 flu panic. Never worked with Covid. Will never work for a respiratory disease.
Now think about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Experts. Russia will not invade. Categorically. Non-experts, they’ve been building up their troops since September. Sure as hell looks like they will invade as otherwise what the hell is going on?
Oh they invaded. Right. Experts. Ukraine will collapse in three days. Dead set certainty. Second most powerful army in the world against those corrupt Ukrainian folks. Here we are heading into year three of the conflict and there is no obvious way this will go. Well I don’t think there is. The experts are very much either Russia will win, its obvious, or Pudding and his regime will collapse and Ukraine will win, its obvious.
Fundamentally if someone doesn’t give you a range of the likelihood of their position ignore it. Make your own mind up.
Sadly it seems the position of many an expert is I’m the expert, I’m right, you are wrong.
Hey ho.