So I was finishing off a cohort of Jane’s magazines and it struck me that if China is going to invade, then next year maybe the last good window of opportunity it has. Go with me on this.
Taiwan itself is upgrading its air defences at what seems a furious pace. They have new Sky Bow III missile systems coming on stream this year with a full complement due by 2025. New submarine (yes, yes, I know singular isn’t great, but a single torpedo in a flat top is good enough to give it a bad day) hitting the water, plus the US ponying up money for the first time to help fund Taiwanese defences.
Next up is the US getting somewhat (not serious, just somewhat) serious about pacific defences, logistics and supply chains. Example here is that Guam will have Aegis ashore in 2025. So while nowhere near good enough for a fight, but might be good enough for deterrence.
Final piece of the puzzle is we have elections in Taiwan in January. If they swing towards a harder line on independence it makes a bit of a quandary. Add in what is going to be, er, an eventful election cycle in the US, potentially with a contested election to boot, you just get a gimmer of a window of opportunity.
Signals will be a rhetorical ramp up by China post the Taiwanese election, intelligence agencies briefing mid-year of Chinese election interference in the US, and the Chinese themselves call up a bunch of ro-ro vessels in August for ‘exercises.’
If they happen, sell everything, move everything to cash, and go find a deep cave to live in.
Hey oh.
As an addendum, according to Easton1 April and October are the good months for cross straight invasion, but you could see maybe a second week November go as a stretchy target allowing for a fuck up of a US election to discombobulate everything and everyone.
As a second addendum, keep an open eye on the Chinese economy, as if the forever runes of collapse start to come to fruition, the imperative for Xi to have a foreign adventure to distract from the annus horribilis of 2024 might just get too strong.
Weather Factors and Suitability for Amphibious Operations
Easton, Ian. The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia (p. 207). Eastbridge Books. Kindle Edition.